The United States’ sensitivity to election interference has fueled widespread speculation over the impact of foreign actors on American elections. Yet discussions rarely address three relevant considerations.
First, they assume that it’s only the views of domestic Americans that matter in deciding how to vote. That assumption ignores the fact that many American voters are also affected by the views of foreign governments and citizens, which can inform how they assess the merits of a candidate or policy proposal.
Second, they assume that foreign interference only occurs during a specific time frame leading up to an election. That assumption overlooks the fact that election interference is a constant, pervasive threat to democracy. It consists of an ever-expanding range of activities that can be undertaken by human actors, nonhuman actors (e.g., bots), or both—and that all of them can potentially influence election outcomes.
The most obvious example of this is Russia’s alleged intervention in the 2016 presidential campaign, which influenced the shape of the media landscape and public discourse but appears to have had a limited effect on the final outcome. More recently, political disinformation has proliferated in Romania, where officials cited foreign interference as the reason for annulling the election results—but again, there is little evidence that this had a meaningful impact on voting outcomes. Regardless, it’s important to be vigilant against the spread of manipulation and misinformation that is increasingly being deployed by foreign agents and Americans alike.